NEW YORK, Aug. 26 - During an election year, August recess for members of Congress is a time for them to reconnect with their constituents and get a little rest before they come back to D.C. for a flurry of activity for one month followed by one month of intense campaigning. This year, they need to do more reconnecting than resting, as just 15% of Americans rate the overall job Congress is doing as positive with 85% giving their job negative marks. And, while Democrats may hold control of Congress, their partisans are not being more kind - three-quarters of Democrats (73%) give Congress negative ratings as do 89% of Independents and 95% of Republicans.
These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,775 adults surveyed online between August 9 and 16, 2010 by Harris Interactive.
The November Elections
One of the stories of this election season so far has been Democratic disenchantment and Republican enthusiasm. Looking at two simple factors - voting interest and voting likelihood - shows this story continues as the summer ends. While over half of Americans (53%) say they are absolutely certain they will vote in the November elections, that numbers goes up to 63% for Republicans and only to 55% for Democrats. Interest shows a similar trend. Three in five Americans (60%) say they are interested in the House of Representatives election this year. Looking at it by party, seven in ten Republicans (71%) say they are interested versus 56% of Democrats.
Tea Party supporters are the most enthusiastic. Seven in ten of those who are Tea Party supporters (70%) and three-quarters of those who consider themselves a Tea Party member (77%) say they are absolutely certain to vote. They are also more likely to be interested in the election. Eight in ten Tea Party supporters (79%) and 88% of Tea Party members say they are interested in the House of Representative election this year.
This enthusiasm is showing itself in a tight race for the House. One-third of Americans say they would vote for the Democratic candidate (34%) and one-third say they would vote for the Republican candidate (33%) with over one-quarter still undecided (28%). Looking at just those who say they are absolutely or very certain to vote this November, the edge goes to the Republicans, as 39% say they will vote for them with 37% saying they will vote for the Democratic candidate. And, among those who are extremely or very interested in this year's election, the Grand Old Party could see a landslide as almost half of these people (47%) say they would vote Republican compared to 35% who would vote for the Democrat.
But, if there is a Tea Party candidate in the race, things look better for the Democrats. In a three way race, 34% of Americans would vote for the Democrat, 22% would vote for the Republican and 11% would vote for the Tea Party candidate with one-third (33%) undecided. When looking at interest and likelihood to vote, the edge remains with the Democrats in the three-way race. Among those absolutely or very certain to vote, 38% would vote Democrat, 25% Republican and 14% for the Tea Party candidate. Among those extremely or very interested to vote, 36% would vote Democrat, 29% would vote Republican and 19% would vote for the Tea Party candidate.
So What?
The 2010 midterm elections are entering the final phase. Once Labor Day is over, the fall election cycle is in full swing. So far this year, 6 incumbents have lost in primaries around the country. Other incumbents have survived close calls. The electorate is disgruntled, but what happens over the next nine weeks will help decide two important factors. First, who will actually turn out to vote on November 2nd? And, more importantly, who are they voting for?
TABLE 1
CONGRESS' OVERALL JOB RATING
"How would you rate the overall job Congress is doing?"
Base: All U.S. adults
Total Political Party
---------------
Rep. Dem. Ind.
---- ---- ----
% % % %
--- --- --- ---
POSITIVE 15 5 27 11
-------- --- --- --- ---
Excellent 2 * 4 *
--------- --- --- --- ---
Pretty good 14 5 22 11
----------- --- --- --- ---
NEGATIVE 85 95 73 89
-------- --- --- --- ---
Only fair 35 24 48 32
--------- --- --- --- ---
Poor 49 71 25 57
---- --- --- --- ---
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; * signifies less than 1%.
TABLE 2
CONGRESS' OVERALL JOB RATING - TREND
"How would you rate the overall job the Congress is doing?"
Base: All U.S. adults
TREND Positive* Negative**
--------- ----------
% %
--- ---
2010 August 15 85
---- ------ --- ---
June 14 86
---- --- ---
May 15 85
--- --- ---
April 16 84
----- --- ---
March 10 90
----- --- ---
Jan. 16 84
---- --- ---
2009 Dec. 17 83
---- ---- --- ---
Oct. 16 84
---- --- ---
Sept. 19 81
----- --- ---
Aug. 22 78
---- --- ---
June 25 75
---- --- ---
March 29 71
----- --- ---
2008 October 10 86
---- ------- --- ---
August 18 77
------ --- ---
June 13 83
---- --- ---
February 20 76
-------- --- ---
2007 December 17 79
---- -------- --- ---
October 20 77
------- --- ---
April 27 69
----- --- ---
February 33 62
-------- --- ---
2006 September 24 73
---- --------- --- ---
May 18 80
--- --- ---
February 25 71
-------- --- ---
January 25 72
------- --- ---
*Positive = excellent or pretty good. **Negative = only fair or poor.
Note: Prior to March, 2009, this question was asked by telephone.
TABLE 3
Voting Likelihood
"An election for the House of Representatives will be held on November 2nd. How certain are you that you will vote?"
Base: All U.S. adults
Total Political Party Tea Party
--------------- ---------
Rep. Dem. Ind. Supporter Member
---- ---- ---- --------- ------
% % % % % %
--- --- --- --- --- ---
Will Vote 80 88 84 81 92 92
--------- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Absolutely
certain I will
vote 53 63 55 51 70 77
--------------- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Very certain I
will vote 14 14 14 17 13 11
-------------- --- --- --- --- --- ---
I probably will
vote 12 10 15 13 8 3
--------------- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Will Not Vote 13 7 10 13 5 4
------------- --- --- --- --- --- ---
I probably will
not vote 7 5 6 6 3 3
--------------- --- --- --- --- --- ---
I am certain I
will not vote 6 2 4 7 2 1
-------------- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Not sure if I
will vote 7 5 6 6 3 5
------------- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 4
ELECTION INTEREST
"How interested are you in the House of Representatives elections this year?"
Base: All U.S. adults
Total Political Party
---------------
Rep. Dem. Ind.
---- ---- ----
% % % %
--- --- --- ---
Interested 60 71 56 63
---------- --- --- --- ---
Extremely interested 22 32 21 43
-------------------- --- --- --- ---
Somewhat interested 20 21 17 18
------------------- --- --- --- ---
Interested 18 17 18 25
---------- --- --- --- ---
Not Interested 40 29 44 20
-------------- --- --- --- ---
Somewhat interested 25 21 30 37
------------------- --- --- --- ---
Not interested at all 15 8 14 25
--------------------- --- --- --- ---
Tea Party
---------
Supporter Member
--------- ------
% %
--- ---
Interested 79 88
---------- --- ---
Extremely interested 38 48
-------------------- --- ---
Somewhat interested 25 23
------------------- --- ---
Interested 17 17
---------- --- ---
Not Interested 21 12
-------------- --- ---
Somewhat interested 16 4
------------------- --- ---
Not interested at all 5 8
--------------------- --- ---
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 5
MIDTERM ELECTIONS - TWO-PARTY RACE
"If the election for the House of Representatives was being held today, would you vote for the Republican or the Democratic candidate?"
Base: All U.S. adults
Total Political Party Tea Party
--------------- ---------
Rep. Dem. Ind. Supporter Member
---- ---- ---- --------- ------
% % % % % %
--- --- --- --- --- ---
Democratic
candidate 34 2 77 23 12 10
---------- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Republican
candidate 33 82 2 26 67 73
---------- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Other 5 2 1 12 5 6
----- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Not at all sure 28 15 19 39 16 11
--------------- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 5B
MIDTERM ELECTIONS - TWO-PARTY RACE - VOTING INTEREST AND INTENTION
"If the election for the House of Representatives was being held today, would you vote for the Republican or the Democratic candidate?"
Base: All U.S. adults
Total Voting Interest
---------------
Extremely/
Very Not
Interested Interested
(NET) Interested (NET)
----------- ---------- -----------
% % % %
--- --- --- ---
Democratic
candidate 34 35 35 24
---------- --- --- --- ---
Republican
candidate 33 47 42 12
---------- --- --- --- ---
Other 5 5 5 9
----- --- --- --- ---
Not at all sure 28 13 18 56
--------------- --- --- --- ---
Voting Intention
----------------
Absolutely/ Probably Will Not
Very Certain Will Vote
will Vote Vote (NET)
------------ --------- ---------
% %
--- ---
Democratic
candidate 37 37 25
---------- --- --- ---
Republican
candidate 39 37 11
---------- --- --- ---
Other 4 5 8
----- --- --- ---
Not at all sure 19 22 56
--------------- --- --- ---
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 6
MIDTERM ELECTIONS - THREE-PARTY RACE
"If the election for the House of Representatives was being held today and all three were an option, who would you vote for?"
Base: All U.S. adults
Total Political Party Tea Party
--------------- ---------
Rep. Dem. Ind. Supporter Member
---- ---- ---- --------- ------
% % % % % %
--- --- --- --- --- ---
Democratic candidate 34 1 77 24 10 6
-------------------- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Republican candidate 22 57 1 16 39 23
-------------------- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Tea Party candidate 11 20 2 15 27 56
------------------- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Not at all sure 33 22 20 45 23 15
--------------- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 6B
MIDTERM ELECTIONS - THREE-PARTY RACE - VOTING INTEREST AND INTENTION
"If the election for the House of Representatives was being held today and all three were an option, who would you vote for?"
Base: All U.S. adults
Total Voting Interest
---------------
Extremely/
Very Not
Interested Interested
(NET) Interested (NET)
----------- ---------- -----------
% % % %
--- --- --- ---
Democratic
candidate 34 36 36 24
---------- --- --- --- ---
Republican
candidate 22 29 26 10
---------- --- --- --- ---
Tea Party
candidate 11 19 16 4
---------- --- --- --- ---
Not at all sure 33 16 22 62
--------------- --- --- --- ---
Voting Intention
----------------
Will
Absolutely/ Probably Not
Very Certain Will Vote
will Vote Vote (NET)
------------ --------- -----
% %
--- ---
Democratic
candidate 38 37 28
---------- --- --- ---
Republican
candidate 25 24 12
---------- --- --- ---
Tea Party
candidate 14 13 2
---------- --- --- ---
Not at all sure 23 26 58
--------------- --- --- ---
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 7
TEA PARTY FAMILIARITY
"How familiar are you with the Tea Party Movement?"
Base: All U.S. adults
March May June August
2010 2010 2010 2010
---- ---- ---- ----
% % % %
--- --- --- ---
Familiar (NET) 76 85 86 86
-------------- --- --- --- ---
Very familiar 15 22 20 20
------------- --- --- --- ---
Somewhat familiar 39 44 48 44
----------------- --- --- --- ---
Not that familiar 22 19 18 22
----------------- --- --- --- ---
Not familiar (NET) 24 15 14 14
------------------ --- --- --- ---
Not at all familiar 16 10 11 11
------------------- --- --- --- ---
Never heard of 8 5 4 3
-------------- --- --- --- ---
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 8
TEA PARTY SUPPORT
"Do you support or oppose the Tea Party Movement?"
[Asked of all adults excluding those who are "not at all familiar" or "have never heard of" the Tea Party Movement]
Base: All U.S. adults
March May June Aug Political Party
2010 2010 2010 2010 ---------------
Rep. Dem. Ind.
---- ---- ----
% % % % % % %
--- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Support (NET) 33 38 37 38 70 13 42
------------- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Strongly support 14 18 16 15 34 5 12
---------------- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Somewhat support 19 20 22 23 36 8 30
---------------- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Oppose (NET) 23 30 31 29 5 51 31
------------ --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Somewhat oppose 9 11 11 11 4 14 15
--------------- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Strongly oppose 14 19 19 18 1 37 16
--------------- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Not at all sure 20 17 17 19 18 20 16
--------------- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Not asked/Not familiar at
all/ Never heard of 24 15 14 14 8 16 11
------------------------- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 9
TEA PARTY MEMBER
"Would you describe yourself as a member of the Tea Party?"
[Asked of all adults excluding those who are "not at all familiar" or "have never heard of" the Tea Party Movement]
Base: All U.S. adults
May June Aug Political Party
2010 2010 2010 ---------------
Rep. Dem. Ind.
---- ---- ----
% % % % % %
--- --- --- --- --- ---
Yes 10 8 7 17 1 6
--- --- --- --- --- --- ---
No 75 77 79 76 83 83
--- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Not asked/Not
familiar at all/
Never heard of 15 14 14 8 16 11
----------------- --- --- --- --- --- ---
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